The Centre for Population prepares an annual Population Statement under the National Population and Planning Framework, as part of national efforts to increase understanding about populations, population change and the implications for all levels of government. The national population projections by age and sex were produced and published by the Centre for Population under one scenario, as part of the fourth annual Population Statement.

The 2023 Population Statement explores the continued recovery of Australia's population following the COVID-19 pandemic, and how it is expected to change over the next decade, reflecting longstanding demographic trends like population ageing. The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to result in a short-term impact on life expectancy between 2021–22 and 2025–26, and mortality is not expected to return to its pre-pandemic trend until 2026–27. Fertility rates have slowly been declining over the past 60 years and this trend is expected to continue.

Assumptions to the population projections scenario include: the baseline fertility has the total fertility rate falling gradually from 1.66 babies per woman in 2022–23 to 1.62 by 2033–34; the population is projected to grow to 40.6 million people by 2062–63, and natural increase is projected to contribute around a quarter of this growth, with the rest of the growth driven by overseas migration; and the median age is expected to increase by 1.4 years between 2022–23 and 2033–34 to be 39.8 years, reflecting long running trends of declining fertility and increasing life expectancies.

National projections by and age sex are presented in this visualisation. Additional data including state/territory projections and capital city/rest-of-state projections, plus interactive dashboards, are available from the Centre for Population website.

See Centre for Population – Centre for Population Projections (https://population.gov.au/data-and-forecasts/projections) for further information, including in-depth analysis and methodology, in particular see 2023 Population Statement. 

Source reference: 2023 Population Statement; Download underlying data; Age and sex structure, tidy file, 2022–23 to 2033–34.