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Population: Australian population projections

Australian population projections

Population projections are published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Australian population projections are not predictions or forecasts, but are derived from holding assumed levels of births, deaths and migration constant into the future. Three projection series are presented in Australian Demographic Statistics for Australia population projections and Indigenous Australian population projections, and their assumptions are as follows:

Australia population projections: Series A assumes the total fertility rate (TFR), life expectancy, and net oversees migration (NOM) will increase. Series B assumes the TFR will remain steady, declining improvement in life expectancy, and an increase in NOM. Series C assumes the TFR will decline, declining improvement in life expectancy, and a decrease in NOM.

Indigenous Australian population projections: Series A assumes constant fertility rates, an annual 2% increase in paternity rates, a small increase in life expectancy, and zero overseas migration. Series B assumes an annual decrease of 0.5% in fertility rates, 1% annual increase in paternity rates, a small increase in life expectancy, and zero overseas migration. Series C assumes an annual decrease of 1.0% in fertility rates; constant paternity rates; a minor increase in life expectancy, and zero overseas migration.

Australian Demographic Statistics data are also used in the following dashboard menu options: Australian population and Australian population - age and sex.

See ABS 3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics (https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3101.0) for further information, including in-depth commentary and analysis, in particular the source data Quality Declaration. Source reference Australian Demographic Statistics tables 16 and 15.