Population: Australian population projections – age and sex
The Centre for Population prepares an annual Population Statement under the National Population and Planning Framework, as part of national efforts to increase understanding about populations, population change and the implications for all levels of government. The national population projections by age and sex were produced and published by the Centre for Population under three scenarios, as part of the second annual Population Statement.
The central case scenario assumes that net overseas migration will recover strongly and return to pre-pandemic trends by 2024–25. In the upside scenario, migration flows are assumed to return to pre-COVID-19 trends from the March quarter of 2022, so that net overseas migration is positive in 2021–22. The downside scenario is based on net overseas migration forecasts in the Federal Budget 2021–22, which assumed international border restrictions would remain in place until mid–2022 and the recovery in net overseas migration would be more gradual.
These scenarios are different to those published in the first annual Population Statement in December 2020, which applied assumptions to project population growth according to a pre-COVID-19 scenario (what the population of Australia may have been in the absence of COVID-19), a central case scenario (consistent with the forecasting assumptions in the Federal Budget 202021, that is, that COVID-19 had largely been contained and a population‑wide Australian COVID‑19 vaccination program would be in place by late 2021), and an extended restrictions case scenario (where restrictions to the economy and activity are maintained beyond the central scenario for a further 12 months).
National projections by and age sex are presented in this visualisation. Additional data including state/territory projections and capital city/rest-of-state projections, plus interactive dashboards, are available from the Centre for Population website.
See Centre for Population – Centre for Population Projections (https://population.gov.au/data-and-forecasts/projections) for further information, including in-depth analysis and methodology, in particular see 2021 Population Statement.
Source reference: 2021 Population Statement; Download underlying data; Age and sex structure, tidy file, 2020–21 to 2031–32.